So what can the Assualt Cannon do to a Space Marine

Well I have shown what it can do to a Rhino, what can the assault cannon do to the Marines in its sights?




That is an average of 1.8 kills per firing.

And speaking of that Rhino, what do the are the odds that Penetrating hit does something interesting, Weapon destroyed are better.

It best to view this as two separate question rather then two halves of the same question.

My new MathHammer trick.

Do you remember this post, if not go back and read it.

OK here some thing new; so for my lovely assistant I will use turn three with four units waiting in the wings to come on. Remember on each roll that a 66.7% chance of a successful dice roll.

1.2%   chance that zero will come on.
9.9%   chance that one will come on.
29.6% chance that two will come on.
39.5% chance that three will come on.
19.6% chance that four will come on.

Well that come out to an average 2.7 units will come on given this set up.  How does .7 of a unit come on, you ask, or even were does this number come from?  Well think of it this way, let say that you have to make this roll 100 times.  This means you will get zero units on 1.2 times out of the 100. One unit 9.9 times out of a 100, 29.6 of 100 rolls will get you two units, 39.5 of 100 three units come on, and finally four units will come on 19.6 times out of the 100 dice rolls. 
Then we need to see home many total untis come on for the 100 rolls.
(0 x 1.2) + (1 x 9.9) + (2 x 29.6) + (3 x 39.5) + (4 x 19.6) = 266 unit* coming on to the board if you rolled this out 100 times.  Well you rolled the dice 100 times so if you divide 266 by 100 you get an average of 2.7 units per roll.

Still confused yet me know an I see if I can explain in another way. 


* statically, results may vary in actual game play.

Assault Cannon vs. Rhino (Armour 12)

Here gust a quick post that I did after reading about an assault cannon vs. a psycannon.  As far as they go, odds wise, they are the same expert in one regard, an auto cannon can not get a shaken result vs. Armour 12.

 

And here my new trick I picked up, that on average .4 penetrating hits each time fired.  More on were that number comes from next time.

Mathhammer Links

I want to incorporate what Bringer of Victory Metrics in to how I crunch my numbers.  I want a system to compare units.  I think he has a good system, but there this voice in the back of my head that says he over looking something.  This is a familiar voice for me, that has severed me well in my math and science back ground.  I need to spend some time not reading but doing some pencil and paper work so I can fully understand what going on.  Any way here is the FAQ.

Also here a OK link as how to do mathhammering.

Off to play blood bowl tomorrow.  In addition I want to post some more probability sheets in the next week along with a battle report or two.  I have on American Civil War game to post and if I get a game in tomorrow I try to get that up too.  It would be nice to do a detail annalists of the game, see how reality stacks with the numbers, but not sure how to record the data I would need and still enjoy the game.

Vaction and an Blog to Watch

I will be off on vacation for the next two weeks, but I found a blog that has given me a lot to think of.


Bringer of Victory

It reads as if is written by an economist, but this is a good thing.  It seems that the blogger has come up with a system evaluating the usefulness of units.  I have not read enough yet to say or understand what exactly he doing, or if I agree with his methodology. 

Bringer of Victory is doing something a bit different then I set out to do.  I want to show the odds of how many kills a single unit will get, he is evaluating a whole list over the entire game, and giving it a numeric score.  When I get back from vacation I will be more informed and better able to give my two cents.

Wow! Hormagaunts are a guradsman worst nightmare!

Working on my next post, but here a sneak preview.

Hormagaunts vs T3 A4+, the chance for any one attack to kill is 21.9%.  Wow!

Does this mean you will kill about 1/5th of the biomass your attacking, not necessarily so, and that the point I am trying to get across in this blog. One: 21.9% takes calculating two re rolls, which takes some thinking ( I show you the scan of my scratch work here at the end.) Two: to scale this up to more attacks you have to use Binomial Theory (and yes a explanation of what this is is coming.)

Other results from my work so far (to kill for one attack):
w/ Toxin Sacs vs.
>T3 A3+ --> 9.7%
T3 A4+   --> 21.9%
T3 A5+   --> 29.2%

w/ out Toxin Sacs vs.
T4 A3+  --> 6.5%
T3 A4+  --> 14.6%
T3 A5+  --> 19.4%

I should note the first time I ran the numbers I was of by double, it was only after I went back and looked at the numbers in context, that a nagging voice said I should double check my work.  But as of now these numbers are correct.

Pi is a Lie!

I have just seen the light and now feel compaired to share this with you. 

Pi is a lie!